Only 6.16% of FOMO App Traders Made Money — Memecoin Buyers Lost $1.26B in 90 Days

Out of 292,531 wallets that traded memecoins on the FOMO app over the last 90 days, only 18,033 closed in profit — a win rate of 6.16%. The rest, 274,498 wallets, lost money, and combined losses across the platform are estimated at $1.26 billion. For context, a comparable betting site posted a 37% profitable-user rate over a similar stretch, roughly six times better odds than FOMO traders faced.

Key takeaways

• Only 18,033 of 292,531 FOMO app wallets (6.16%) were profitable over the trailing 90 days.
• 274,498 wallets — about 93.84% of all traders — ended up losers.
• Combined losses across the platform are estimated at $1.26 billion.
• Losing wallets lost an average of roughly $4,590 each; across every wallet, average losses were roughly $4,308.
• A comparable betting site's 37% profitable-user rate was about six times higher than FOMO's 6.16%.

How do the FOMO numbers break down?

The analysis, published by X user MidCurveMortal, pulled trading data from every wallet active on FOMO over a 90-day window. Of 292,531 total wallets, just 18,033 finished with a net gain, leaving 274,498 wallets in the red. The math is stark: for every winning wallet on the app, roughly 15 wallets lost money, and the aggregate loss across the losing group is estimated at $1.26 billion.

Metric	Value
Total wallets analyzed (90 days)	292,531
Profitable wallets	18,033
Share of wallets in profit	6.16%
Wallets that lost money	274,498 (roughly, derived)
Estimated total losses	$1.26 billion
Comparable betting site profitable-user rate	37%
FOMO vs. betting site win-rate gap	roughly 6x worse odds

Why is a betting site's win rate used as the benchmark?

The comparison exists because MidCurveMortal ran the same type of profitability check on a betting platform over a similar timeframe, giving a direct apples-to-apples reference point for how skewed memecoin trading outcomes really are. On that betting site, 37% of users came out ahead — meaning roughly one in three bettors profited, versus roughly one in sixteen FOMO traders. The gap illustrates that even activities widely regarded as high-variance gambling can offer better odds than trading low-liquidity memecoins through a mobile app. This kind of side-by-side framing is common in analyses that try to contextualize how extreme a given market's loss rate actually is, similar to how prediction markets publish win-rate data that traders use to judge whether an edge exists at all.

What does the $1.26B loss figure actually measure?

The $1.26 billion figure represents the estimated aggregate net losses of the 274,498 wallets that traded at a loss on FOMO over the 90-day window, calculated from on-chain wallet-level trading data rather than a platform-reported metric. It is not a company disclosure, an audited figure, or a regulatory filing — it's the output of one analyst's independent wallet scan. Dividing that total across the losing group gives an average loss of roughly $4,590 per losing wallet, or roughly $4,308 if spread across every wallet that traded on the app, winners included. The author explicitly flagged that the numbers aren't fully verified, though similar loss patterns have shown up in other memecoin trading studies, which is why the figure is treated here as a credible estimate rather than a confirmed audit.

Why do so few memecoin traders end up profitable?

A sub-7% win rate on a memecoin trading app reflects the structural nature of that market: thousands of low-liquidity tokens launch and die within hours, meaning most participants are effectively buying into tokens that are already declining by the time they enter. Unlike order-book perpetual markets, where traders can hedge, use funding rate arbitrage, or manage risk with defined liquidation levels, memecoin apps like FOMO typically offer simple buy/sell mechanics with no built-in risk tools. That structural gap — no hedging, extreme volatility, and a constant churn of new tokens competing for attention — helps explain why FOMO's 6.16% profit rate lags so far behind the 37% seen on the betting site referenced in the same analysis. Readers wanting to understand how more structured trading venues price and manage this kind of risk can review how perpetual DEXs work for a contrasting model.

Bottom line

The numbers, while unverified and sourced from one independent analyst, paint a consistent picture: on FOMO, the overwhelming majority of traders — 93.84% of 292,531 wallets — lost money over 90 days, and the aggregate damage is estimated at $1.26 billion. The six-fold gap versus a betting site's 37% win rate suggests memecoin trading through mobile apps carries materially worse odds than even conventional gambling. Whether this pattern persists will depend on whether independent analysts continue tracking FOMO's wallet data and whether it converges with other memecoin studies cited as corroborating evidence; readers can compare structured alternatives via Top7's DEX research or track prediction-market win rates through prediction market comparisons.